CWRU Mathematics Professor Daniela Calvetti was quoted by SpectrumNews1 in a recent article
“What’s next as Ohio recovers from omicron? ‘Everyone wants to know an end date’.”

https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/cincinnati

According to the article, “A COVID-19 case modeling tool that is used in 31 Ohio counties has been projecting for several weeks now that Cuyahoga County will soon reach the yellow transmission level, which the CDC designates as the level where only unvaccinated people are advised to wear a mask in public indoor settings.

““The model has been predicting this,” said Case Western mathematician Daniela Calvetti. “The model seems to be in agreement with this sense that we are approaching a very nice spot for once.”

“For nearly the last two years, the Ohio Coronavirus Modeling Collaborative has been publishing short-term forecasts of county-level COVID-19 cases through Case Western’s Center for Community Health Integration, focused on the counties where the Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals have facilities. The modeling numbers are closely watched by officials at health departments and hospitals, helping guide their response to the pandemic.

“Calvetti said the sharp downward trend in Cleveland is largely the result of the immunity generated from a record number of infections during the latest virus surge, including many cases that were unrecorded due to lack of symptoms or lack of testing.

““At least for now, we seem to have almost exhausted the population of people who will get infected,” Calvetti said.

“Continued progress in the vaccination effort as well as greater attention from the public to things, like masking, due to the severity of omicron also likely helped drive cases down, Calvetti said. While the trends give reason for optimism, she said what they can’t forecast is if there will be a new variant.” — from SpectrumNews1 article 2/23/2022.